Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Mon Sep 7?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
13 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 85° to 96°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 82° against the PHL observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 88° | 85° | 90° | — | 96° | — | — | 85–96° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 89° | 91° | 87° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 83° | 96° | 86° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–96° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 83° | 87° | 85° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–87° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 80° | 78° | 78° | — | 82° | — | — | 78–82° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 80° | 80° | 77° | 79° | 84° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 80° | 79° | 77° | 81° | 79° | — | — | 77–81° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 79° | 79° | 84° | 79° | 81° | 80° | — | 79–84° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 82° | 81° | 80° | 80° | 84° | 81° | 80° | 80–84° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 80° | 79° | 79° | 79° | 81° | 81° | 80° | 79–81° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 80° | 79° | 78° | 79° | 81° | 81° | 81° | 78–81° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 81° | 79° | 81° | 82° | 81° | 80° | 80° | 79–82° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 81° | 79° | 82° | 83° | 81° | 79° | 80° | 79–83° |
| 0d · 2026-09-07 | 81° | 80° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 80° | 80° | 80–82° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.