Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Sat Sep 5?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
11 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 75° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 84° against the PHL observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 93° | 75° | 93° | — | 79° | — | — | 75–93° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 88° | 84° | 94° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–94° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 81° | 91° | 79° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–91° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 81° | 79° | 84° | 86° | 85° | — | — | 79–86° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 82° | 81° | 76° | 82° | 88° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 83° | 81° | 79° | 83° | 83° | 84° | — | 79–84° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 83° | 81° | 84° | 78° | 82° | 81° | 81° | 78–84° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 82° | 82° | 81° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 84° | 81–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 82° | 81° | 81° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 84° | 81–84° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 82° | 84° | 79° | 81° | 81° | 82° | 83° | 79–84° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 82° | 84° | 83° | 84° | 84° | 81° | 84° | 81–84° |
| 0d · 2026-09-05 | 83° | 82° | 82° | 83° | 84° | 82° | 83° | 82–84° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.