Was the forecast right for Paris on Mon Oct 26?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Paris's Mon Oct 26 high anywhere from 52° to 65°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 57°. The day verified at 58° against the LFPB observations, with 0.02 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. ICON ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-11 | — | 57° | — | — | 56° | — | — | 56–57° |
| 14d · 2026-10-12 | 52° | 56° | 61° | — | 65° | — | — | 52–65° |
| 13d · 2026-10-13 | — | 59° | 59° | — | 63° | — | — | 59–63° |
| 12d · 2026-10-14 | 58° | 56° | 69° | — | 58° | — | — | 56–69° |
| 11d · 2026-10-15 | 59° | 56° | 59° | — | 68° | — | — | 56–68° |
| 10d · 2026-10-16 | 60° | 60° | 59° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–60° |
| 9d · 2026-10-17 | 60° | 57° | 59° | 59° | 58° | — | — | 57–60° |
| 8d · 2026-10-18 | 58° | 57° | 56° | 57° | 65° | — | — | 56–65° |
| 7d · 2026-10-19 | 58° | 55° | 54° | 61° | 59° | — | — | 54–61° |
| 6d · 2026-10-20 | 57° | 57° | 56° | 63° | 58° | 58° | 62° | 56–63° |
| 5d · 2026-10-21 | 57° | 60° | 57° | 52° | 54° | 56° | 62° | 52–62° |
| 4d · 2026-10-22 | 58° | 58° | 61° | 57° | 59° | 58° | 63° | 57–63° |
| 3d · 2026-10-23 | 56° | 55° | 59° | 58° | 58° | 59° | 63° | 55–63° |
| 2d · 2026-10-24 | 56° | 55° | 60° | 58° | 57° | 55° | 59° | 55–60° |
| 1d · 2026-10-25 | 56° | 56° | 58° | 58° | 57° | 55° | 57° | 55–58° |
| actual | 58° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.