Was the forecast right for Paris on Fri Oct 16?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Paris's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 52° to 73°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 71° against the LFPB observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 62° | — | — | 51° | — | — | 51–62° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 52° | 60° | 73° | — | 73° | — | — | 52–73° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 58° | 66° | 67° | — | 60° | — | — | 58–67° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 70° | 56° | 58° | — | 58° | — | — | 56–70° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 73° | 60° | 59° | — | 61° | — | — | 59–73° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 73° | 54° | 56° | — | 61° | — | — | 54–73° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 64° | 63° | 59° | 62° | 69° | — | — | 59–69° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 60° | 60° | 60° | 73° | 58° | — | — | 58–73° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 63° | 61° | 67° | 64° | 62° | — | — | 61–67° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 62° | 60° | 62° | 61° | 74° | 69° | 68° | 60–74° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 63° | 62° | 67° | 68° | 70° | 66° | 70° | 62–70° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | 63° | 64° | 67° | 73° | 73° | 68° | 65° | 63–73° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | — | 68° | 69° | 67° | 72° | 69° | 66° | 66–72° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 63° | 68° | 67° | 69° | 72° | 69° | 67° | 63–72° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 64° | 69° | 70° | 71° | 71° | 69° | 70° | 64–71° |
| actual | 71° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.