Was the forecast right for Paris on Thu Oct 15?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Paris's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 55° to 63°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 73°. The day verified at 76° against the LFPB observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. AIGFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 58° | — | — | 66° | — | — | 58–66° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 60° | 61° | 63° | — | 55° | — | — | 55–63° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 58° | 56° | 73° | — | 67° | — | — | 56–73° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 57° | 63° | 64° | — | 63° | — | — | 57–64° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 66° | 62° | 59° | — | 64° | — | — | 59–66° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 69° | 58° | 62° | — | 61° | — | — | 58–69° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 68° | 61° | 65° | 69° | 60° | — | — | 60–69° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 67° | 62° | 60° | 66° | 68° | — | — | 60–68° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 65° | 62° | 72° | 74° | 64° | — | — | 62–74° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 67° | 67° | 67° | 73° | 74° | 72° | 74° | 67–74° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 65° | 62° | 73° | 77° | 75° | 70° | 74° | 62–77° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 68° | 63° | 72° | 77° | 75° | 74° | 69° | 63–77° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | 68° | 66° | 69° | 76° | 73° | 70° | 67° | 66–76° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | — | 68° | 70° | 77° | 73° | 76° | 71° | 68–77° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 71° | 69° | 71° | 77° | 75° | 73° | 74° | 69–77° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.