Was the forecast right for Paris on Wed Oct 14?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Paris's Wed Oct 14 high anywhere from 59° to 64°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 70° against the LFPB observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.8°. AIGFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-29 | — | 59° | — | — | 54° | — | — | 54–59° |
| 14d · 2026-09-30 | 59° | 61° | 63° | — | 64° | — | — | 59–64° |
| 13d · 2026-10-01 | 65° | 60° | 64° | — | 57° | — | — | 57–65° |
| 12d · 2026-10-02 | 64° | 57° | 70° | — | 72° | — | — | 57–72° |
| 11d · 2026-10-03 | 64° | 65° | 66° | — | 73° | — | — | 64–73° |
| 10d · 2026-10-04 | 63° | 70° | 68° | — | 67° | — | — | 63–70° |
| 9d · 2026-10-05 | 67° | 62° | 72° | 65° | 60° | — | — | 60–72° |
| 8d · 2026-10-06 | 69° | 62° | 68° | 72° | 63° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 7d · 2026-10-07 | 66° | 62° | 70° | 71° | 67° | — | — | 62–71° |
| 6d · 2026-10-08 | 64° | 67° | 71° | 70° | 69° | 69° | 64° | 64–71° |
| 5d · 2026-10-09 | 63° | 65° | 69° | 73° | 70° | 72° | 70° | 63–73° |
| 4d · 2026-10-10 | 63° | 63° | 67° | 72° | 68° | 68° | 66° | 63–72° |
| 3d · 2026-10-11 | 64° | 63° | 65° | 68° | 71° | 67° | 65° | 63–71° |
| 2d · 2026-10-12 | 64° | 63° | 65° | 68° | 69° | 66° | 64° | 63–69° |
| 1d · 2026-10-13 | — | 64° | 65° | 68° | 69° | 66° | 67° | 64–69° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.