Was the forecast right for Paris on Fri Oct 9?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Paris's Fri Oct 9 high anywhere from 54° to 75°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 61°. The day verified at 63° against the LFPB observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-24 | — | 67° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 67–78° |
| 14d · 2026-09-25 | 75° | 71° | 64° | — | 54° | — | — | 54–75° |
| 13d · 2026-09-26 | 61° | 67° | 60° | — | 82° | — | — | 60–82° |
| 12d · 2026-09-27 | 64° | 65° | 69° | — | 63° | — | — | 63–69° |
| 11d · 2026-09-28 | 74° | 68° | 59° | — | 61° | — | — | 59–74° |
| 10d · 2026-09-29 | 63° | 64° | 62° | — | 65° | — | — | 62–65° |
| 9d · 2026-09-30 | 62° | 59° | 58° | 65° | 61° | — | — | 58–65° |
| 8d · 2026-10-01 | 62° | 60° | 60° | 64° | 70° | — | — | 60–70° |
| 7d · 2026-10-02 | 62° | 58° | 61° | 64° | 62° | — | — | 58–64° |
| 6d · 2026-10-03 | 60° | 64° | 58° | 67° | 69° | 56° | 64° | 56–69° |
| 5d · 2026-10-04 | 61° | 63° | 56° | 66° | 65° | 55° | 58° | 55–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-05 | 59° | 56° | 60° | 63° | 65° | 61° | 59° | 56–65° |
| 3d · 2026-10-06 | 60° | 59° | 58° | 58° | 62° | 62° | 61° | 58–62° |
| 2d · 2026-10-07 | 59° | 59° | 57° | 60° | 61° | 62° | 59° | 57–62° |
| 1d · 2026-10-08 | 62° | 59° | 61° | 64° | 62° | 60° | 60° | 59–64° |
| actual | 63° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.