Was the forecast right for Paris on Tue Oct 6?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
13 days out, 4 models put Paris's Tue Oct 6 high anywhere from 60° to 66°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 77° against the LFPB observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-21 | — | 58° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 58–83° |
| 14d · 2026-09-22 | 62° | 62° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 62–69° |
| 13d · 2026-09-23 | 60° | 61° | 66° | — | 65° | — | — | 60–66° |
| 12d · 2026-09-24 | 70° | 71° | 69° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–71° |
| 11d · 2026-09-25 | 67° | 76° | 60° | — | 79° | — | — | 60–79° |
| 10d · 2026-09-26 | 67° | 70° | 72° | — | 70° | — | — | 67–72° |
| 9d · 2026-09-27 | 74° | 69° | 64° | — | 77° | — | — | 64–77° |
| 8d · 2026-09-28 | 76° | 72° | 70° | 78° | 74° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-29 | 74° | 72° | 70° | 73° | 74° | — | — | 70–74° |
| 6d · 2026-09-30 | 74° | 75° | 67° | 79° | 72° | 69° | 71° | 67–79° |
| 5d · 2026-10-01 | 71° | 72° | 75° | 72° | 75° | 72° | 74° | 71–75° |
| 4d · 2026-10-02 | 73° | 75° | 75° | 78° | 71° | 69° | 70° | 69–78° |
| 3d · 2026-10-03 | 76° | 72° | 76° | 81° | 77° | 77° | 72° | 72–81° |
| 2d · 2026-10-04 | 74° | 72° | 74° | 78° | 76° | 73° | 76° | 72–78° |
| 1d · 2026-10-05 | 74° | 73° | 75° | 76° | 78° | 74° | 76° | 73–78° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.