Was the forecast right for Paris on Mon Oct 5?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Paris's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 64° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 78° against the LFPB observations — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 63° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 63–70° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 64° | 64° | 72° | — | 82° | — | — | 64–82° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 63° | 64° | 68° | — | 82° | — | — | 63–82° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 59° | 59° | 75° | — | 66° | — | — | 59–75° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 70° | 71° | 67° | — | 70° | — | — | 67–71° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 66° | 75° | 58° | — | 77° | — | — | 58–77° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 70° | 69° | 72° | 72° | 74° | — | — | 69–74° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 74° | 68° | 62° | 78° | 76° | — | — | 62–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 76° | 70° | 68° | 81° | 74° | — | — | 68–81° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 72° | 70° | 68° | 78° | 75° | 68° | 67° | 67–78° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 73° | 71° | 67° | 75° | 77° | 66° | 71° | 66–77° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 71° | 70° | 73° | 72° | 73° | 72° | 71° | 70–73° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 73° | 74° | 72° | 79° | 66° | 70° | 70° | 66–79° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 76° | 72° | 76° | 81° | 76° | 77° | 74° | 72–81° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 75° | 73° | 75° | 78° | 77° | 75° | 75° | 73–78° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.