Was the forecast right for Paris on Sun Oct 4?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Paris's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 62° to 72°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 77° against the LFPB observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 62° | 63° | 72° | — | 70° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 65° | 70° | 82° | — | 84° | — | — | 65–84° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 62° | 65° | 64° | — | 84° | — | — | 62–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 61° | 65° | 70° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–70° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 70° | 70° | 66° | — | 68° | — | — | 66–70° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 66° | 72° | 59° | 73° | 74° | — | — | 59–74° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 73° | 69° | 71° | 76° | 73° | — | — | 69–76° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 73° | 69° | 67° | 77° | 69° | — | — | 67–77° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 75° | 70° | 68° | 79° | 72° | 71° | 70° | 68–79° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 71° | 68° | 69° | 74° | 76° | 68° | 71° | 68–76° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 73° | 70° | 70° | 73° | 74° | 67° | 71° | 67–74° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 72° | 70° | 71° | 72° | 73° | 71° | 72° | 70–73° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 73° | 69° | 73° | 75° | 66° | 71° | 71° | 66–75° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 74° | 72° | 74° | 78° | 77° | 76° | 76° | 72–78° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.