Was the forecast right for Paris on Tue Sep 29?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Paris's Tue Sep 29 high anywhere from 56° to 83°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 84° against the LFPB observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-14 | — | 73° | — | — | 66° | — | — | 66–73° |
| 14d · 2026-09-15 | 81° | 56° | 83° | — | 63° | — | — | 56–83° |
| 13d · 2026-09-16 | 80° | 62° | 76° | — | 75° | — | — | 62–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-17 | 62° | 66° | 67° | — | 86° | — | — | 62–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-18 | 71° | 64° | 67° | — | 67° | — | — | 64–71° |
| 10d · 2026-09-19 | 82° | 70° | 84° | — | 68° | — | — | 68–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-20 | 78° | 76° | 85° | 82° | 80° | — | — | 76–85° |
| 8d · 2026-09-21 | 78° | 76° | 81° | 64° | 82° | — | — | 64–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-22 | 78° | 70° | 78° | 82° | 82° | — | — | 70–82° |
| 6d · 2026-09-23 | 80° | 75° | 75° | 81° | 85° | 88° | 83° | 75–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-24 | 82° | 78° | 84° | 82° | 76° | 87° | 83° | 76–87° |
| 4d · 2026-09-25 | 80° | 76° | 81° | 85° | 74° | 82° | 82° | 74–85° |
| 3d · 2026-09-26 | 81° | 77° | 81° | 86° | 83° | 85° | 82° | 77–86° |
| 2d · 2026-09-27 | 79° | 77° | 78° | 81° | 77° | 81° | 75° | 75–81° |
| 1d · 2026-09-28 | 80° | 77° | 82° | 84° | 82° | 81° | 83° | 77–84° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.