Was the forecast right for Paris on Mon Sep 28?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Paris's Mon Sep 28 high anywhere from 68° to 78°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 76° against the LFPB observations, with 0.05 in of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.3°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-13 | — | 63° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 63–71° |
| 14d · 2026-09-14 | 78° | 76° | 68° | — | 68° | — | — | 68–78° |
| 13d · 2026-09-15 | 79° | 59° | 81° | — | 69° | — | — | 59–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-16 | 76° | 62° | 69° | — | 70° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 11d · 2026-09-17 | 62° | 64° | 68° | — | 82° | — | — | 62–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-18 | 79° | 66° | 76° | — | 79° | — | — | 66–79° |
| 9d · 2026-09-19 | 78° | 72° | 85° | — | 73° | — | — | 72–85° |
| 8d · 2026-09-20 | 81° | 65° | 84° | 72° | 76° | — | — | 65–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-21 | 71° | 65° | 80° | 74° | 79° | — | — | 65–80° |
| 6d · 2026-09-22 | 75° | 63° | 71° | 72° | 68° | 75° | — | 63–75° |
| 5d · 2026-09-23 | 70° | 66° | 75° | 77° | 69° | 77° | 80° | 66–80° |
| 4d · 2026-09-24 | 78° | 74° | 77° | 73° | 77° | 80° | 74° | 73–80° |
| 3d · 2026-09-25 | 72° | 74° | 74° | 77° | 74° | 78° | 72° | 72–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-26 | 74° | 74° | 79° | 78° | 77° | 84° | 72° | 72–84° |
| 1d · 2026-09-27 | 72° | 73° | 78° | 79° | 79° | 78° | 73° | 72–79° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.