Was the forecast right for Paris on Sat Sep 19?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Paris's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 67° to 83°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 78° against the LFPB observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-04 | — | 59° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 59–70° |
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 68° | 83° | 67° | — | 82° | — | — | 67–83° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 66° | 81° | 86° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 69° | 70° | 67° | — | 71° | — | — | 67–71° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 69° | 72° | 72° | — | 76° | — | — | 69–76° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 76° | 69° | 76° | — | 77° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 68° | 71° | 68° | 68° | 68° | — | — | 68–71° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 68° | 64° | 71° | 73° | 75° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 71° | 66° | 76° | 76° | 71° | — | — | 66–76° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 73° | 72° | 65° | 76° | 76° | 78° | 71° | 65–78° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 71° | 73° | 72° | 71° | 75° | 76° | 74° | 71–76° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 72° | 71° | 71° | 77° | 79° | 74° | 74° | 71–79° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 72° | 74° | 75° | 76° | 78° | 76° | 74° | 72–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 73° | 74° | 75° | 76° | 79° | 78° | 74° | 73–79° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 73° | 74° | 75° | 76° | 78° | 76° | 75° | 73–78° |
| 0d · 2026-09-19 | 74° | 75° | 75° | 77° | 77° | 76° | 74° | 74–77° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.