Was the forecast right for Paris on Wed Sep 16?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Paris's Wed Sep 16 high anywhere from 57° to 78°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 73° against the LFPB observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. UKMO ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-01 | — | 64° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 64–86° |
| 14d · 2026-09-02 | 68° | 57° | 71° | — | 78° | — | — | 57–78° |
| 13d · 2026-09-03 | 76° | 59° | 66° | — | 87° | — | — | 59–87° |
| 12d · 2026-09-04 | 70° | 64° | 70° | — | 79° | — | — | 64–79° |
| 11d · 2026-09-05 | 64° | 77° | 68° | — | 75° | — | — | 64–77° |
| 10d · 2026-09-06 | 64° | 72° | 70° | — | 67° | — | — | 64–72° |
| 9d · 2026-09-07 | 64° | 66° | 70° | 67° | 75° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 8d · 2026-09-08 | 65° | 71° | 67° | 65° | 74° | — | — | 65–74° |
| 7d · 2026-09-09 | 67° | 64° | 71° | 64° | 88° | — | — | 64–88° |
| 6d · 2026-09-10 | 65° | 69° | 65° | 68° | 72° | 67° | 67° | 65–72° |
| 5d · 2026-09-11 | 68° | 67° | 70° | 68° | 73° | 69° | 70° | 67–73° |
| 4d · 2026-09-12 | 69° | 69° | 71° | 69° | 73° | 67° | 69° | 67–73° |
| 3d · 2026-09-13 | 70° | 70° | 71° | 72° | 73° | 70° | 69° | 69–73° |
| 2d · 2026-09-14 | 70° | 70° | 71° | 71° | 72° | 72° | 69° | 69–72° |
| 1d · 2026-09-15 | 70° | 71° | 71° | 71° | 71° | 71° | 68° | 68–71° |
| 0d · 2026-09-16 | 70° | 71° | 71° | 73° | 74° | 72° | 70° | 70–74° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.