Was the forecast right for Paris on Tue Sep 15?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Paris's Tue Sep 15 high anywhere from 63° to 89°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 91° against the LFPB observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. AIGFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-31 | — | 64° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 64–92° |
| 14d · 2026-09-01 | 66° | 63° | 65° | — | 89° | — | — | 63–89° |
| 13d · 2026-09-02 | 66° | 68° | 68° | — | 77° | — | — | 66–77° |
| 12d · 2026-09-03 | 74° | 63° | 69° | — | 84° | — | — | 63–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-04 | 70° | 69° | 69° | — | 81° | — | — | 69–81° |
| 10d · 2026-09-05 | 64° | 76° | 68° | — | 76° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 9d · 2026-09-06 | 69° | 72° | 72° | 77° | 79° | — | — | 69–79° |
| 8d · 2026-09-07 | 73° | 69° | 73° | 68° | 81° | — | — | 68–81° |
| 7d · 2026-09-08 | 77° | 78° | 80° | 76° | 84° | — | — | 76–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-09 | 78° | 76° | 79° | 78° | 83° | 82° | — | 76–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-10 | 75° | 78° | 83° | 84° | 88° | 75° | 85° | 75–88° |
| 4d · 2026-09-11 | 80° | 79° | 84° | 87° | 87° | 82° | 77° | 77–87° |
| 3d · 2026-09-12 | 85° | 84° | 87° | 88° | 88° | 85° | 87° | 84–88° |
| 2d · 2026-09-13 | 87° | 84° | 88° | 87° | 90° | 86° | 88° | 84–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-14 | 86° | 85° | 89° | 88° | 90° | 90° | 88° | 85–90° |
| 0d · 2026-09-15 | 88° | 86° | 89° | 88° | 90° | 90° | 88° | 86–90° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.