Was the forecast right for Paris on Mon Sep 14?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Paris's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 56° to 89°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 84° against the LFPB observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.0°. AIGFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-30 | — | 67° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 67–83° |
| 14d · 2026-08-31 | 70° | 72° | 56° | — | 89° | — | — | 56–89° |
| 13d · 2026-09-01 | 65° | 62° | 63° | — | 82° | — | — | 62–82° |
| 12d · 2026-09-02 | 69° | 72° | 64° | — | 76° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 11d · 2026-09-03 | 69° | 63° | 66° | — | 79° | — | — | 63–79° |
| 10d · 2026-09-04 | 71° | 72° | 67° | — | 79° | — | — | 67–79° |
| 9d · 2026-09-05 | 66° | 75° | 66° | 74° | 74° | — | — | 66–75° |
| 8d · 2026-09-06 | 69° | 77° | 70° | 74° | 87° | — | — | 69–87° |
| 7d · 2026-09-07 | 71° | 80° | 73° | 74° | 83° | — | — | 71–83° |
| 6d · 2026-09-08 | 70° | 74° | 77° | 77° | 81° | 82° | 73° | 70–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-09 | 72° | 72° | 71° | 76° | 79° | 85° | 76° | 71–85° |
| 4d · 2026-09-10 | 72° | 72° | 76° | 80° | 81° | 79° | 73° | 72–81° |
| 3d · 2026-09-11 | 75° | 75° | 76° | 82° | 81° | 80° | 78° | 75–82° |
| 2d · 2026-09-12 | 78° | 77° | 77° | 81° | 80° | 80° | 76° | 76–81° |
| 1d · 2026-09-13 | 80° | 79° | 78° | 82° | 82° | 81° | 80° | 78–82° |
| 0d · 2026-09-14 | 81° | 80° | 82° | 83° | 83° | 83° | 81° | 80–83° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.