Was the forecast right for Paris on Sat Sep 12?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
13 days out, 4 models put Paris's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 67° to 76°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 79° against the LFPB observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. AIGFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-30 | 76° | 75° | 67° | — | 75° | — | — | 67–76° |
| 12d · 2026-08-31 | 70° | 67° | 68° | — | 78° | — | — | 67–78° |
| 11d · 2026-09-01 | 67° | 73° | 65° | — | 77° | — | — | 65–77° |
| 10d · 2026-09-02 | 71° | 69° | 68° | — | 78° | — | — | 68–78° |
| 9d · 2026-09-03 | 70° | 63° | 69° | 68° | 78° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 8d · 2026-09-04 | 68° | 69° | 61° | 70° | 73° | — | — | 61–73° |
| 7d · 2026-09-05 | 75° | 74° | 69° | 68° | 69° | — | — | 68–75° |
| 6d · 2026-09-06 | 75° | 74° | 68° | 70° | 82° | 74° | 71° | 68–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-07 | 73° | 75° | 75° | 71° | 80° | 75° | 73° | 71–80° |
| 4d · 2026-09-08 | 73° | 73° | 73° | 75° | 77° | 75° | 72° | 72–77° |
| 3d · 2026-09-09 | 76° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 80° | 76° | 73° | 73–80° |
| 2d · 2026-09-10 | 74° | 75° | 75° | 75° | 80° | 76° | 77° | 74–80° |
| 1d · 2026-09-11 | 75° | 75° | 74° | 76° | 80° | 77° | 75° | 74–80° |
| 0d · 2026-09-12 | 75° | 75° | 76° | 77° | 80° | 76° | 77° | 75–80° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.