Was the forecast right for Paris on Wed Sep 9?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
10 days out, 4 models put Paris's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 67° to 76°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 69°. The day verified at 72° against the LFPB observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. UKMO ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 67° | 71° | 76° | — | 70° | — | — | 67–76° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 69° | 70° | 73° | 68° | 88° | — | — | 68–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 66° | 70° | 67° | 68° | 73° | — | — | 66–73° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 66° | 70° | 67° | 68° | 67° | — | — | 66–70° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 67° | 66° | 68° | 70° | 72° | 69° | 66° | 66–72° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 67° | 67° | 67° | 69° | 67° | 68° | 68° | 67–69° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 66° | 68° | 68° | 67° | 73° | 69° | 68° | 66–73° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 68° | 67° | 68° | 67° | 68° | 69° | 68° | 67–69° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 68° | 69° | 69° | 67° | 73° | 69° | 70° | 67–73° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 68° | 68° | 70° | 68° | 70° | 70° | 68° | 68–70° |
| 0d · 2026-09-09 | 68° | 68° | 70° | 69° | 70° | 70° | 67° | 67–70° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.