Was the forecast right for Paris on Sat Sep 5?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
6 days out, 7 models put Paris's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 74° to 85°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 77° against the LFPB observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 1.7°. ECMWF ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 79° | 74° | 74° | 83° | 79° | 76° | 85° | 74–85° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 76° | 77° | 78° | 81° | 80° | 73° | 79° | 73–81° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 76° | 75° | 79° | 84° | 76° | 73° | 77° | 73–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 74° | 76° | 76° | 77° | 79° | 77° | 75° | 74–79° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 74° | 74° | 74° | 77° | 78° | 76° | 73° | 73–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 74° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 79° | 75° | 74° | 74–79° |
| 0d · 2026-09-05 | 74° | 74° | 74° | 75° | 79° | 75° | 75° | 74–79° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.