Was the forecast right for Paris on Fri Sep 4?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
5 days out, 7 models put Paris's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 78° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 82° against the LFPB observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.9°. GFS ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 84° | 84° | 78° | 86° | 88° | 83° | 78° | 78–88° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 82° | 83° | 83° | 83° | 83° | 86° | 84° | 82–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 81° | 83° | 84° | 88° | 89° | 79° | 82° | 79–89° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 80° | 80° | 79° | 86° | 85° | 83° | 79° | 79–86° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 80° | 80° | 80° | 86° | 87° | 80° | 80° | 80–87° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.