Was the forecast right for Paris on Thu Sep 3?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
4 days out, 7 models put Paris's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 78° to 86°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 81° against the LFPB observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. GEM ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 79° | 78° | 78° | 83° | 86° | 82° | 80° | 78–86° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 77° | 81° | 78° | 84° | 84° | 82° | 75° | 75–84° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 76° | 78° | 77° | 85° | 83° | 80° | 77° | 76–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 77° | 77° | 76° | 83° | 78° | 77° | 79° | 76–83° |
| 0d · 2026-09-03 | 79° | 78° | 77° | 85° | 81° | 79° | 79° | 77–85° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.