Was the forecast right for Paris on Wed Sep 2?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
3 days out, 7 models put Paris's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 72° to 80°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 79° against the LFPB observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.5°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 74° | 75° | 72° | 78° | 80° | 75° | 75° | 72–80° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 74° | 74° | 72° | 78° | 79° | 75° | 75° | 72–79° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 75° | 75° | 75° | 77° | 80° | 75° | 76° | 75–80° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.