Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sun Oct 18?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 80° to 86°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 79° against the ORL observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.9°. UKMO ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 84° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 81–84° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 86° | 83° | 84° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–86° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 75° | 89° | 88° | — | 79° | — | — | 75–89° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 72° | 78° | 82° | — | 88° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 83° | 88° | 84° | — | 93° | — | — | 83–93° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 72° | 87° | 81° | — | 87° | — | — | 72–87° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 75° | 76° | 76° | 77° | 80° | — | — | 75–80° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 78° | 70° | 81° | 73° | 70° | — | — | 70–81° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 81° | 80° | 81° | 80° | 79° | — | — | 79–81° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | 78° | 75° | 80° | 82° | 76° | 80° | 78° | 75–82° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 79° | 79° | 79° | 76° | 77° | 84° | 79° | 76–84° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 78° | 78° | 79° | 80° | 79° | 78° | 72° | 72–80° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 76° | 79° | 77° | 77° | 76° | 79° | 75° | 75–79° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 77° | 78° | 77° | 78° | 78° | 79° | 76° | 76–79° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 78° | 76° | 78° | 78° | 77° | 81° | 76° | 76–81° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.