Was the forecast right for Orlando on Wed Oct 7?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Wed Oct 7 high anywhere from 84° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 77° against the ORL observations, with 1.2 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. ICON ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-22 | — | 86° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 86–88° |
| 14d · 2026-09-23 | 89° | 91° | 84° | — | 88° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 13d · 2026-09-24 | 76° | 88° | 86° | — | 88° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 12d · 2026-09-25 | 85° | 89° | 84° | — | 93° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 11d · 2026-09-26 | 82° | 78° | 85° | — | 93° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 10d · 2026-09-27 | 84° | 83° | 88° | — | 85° | — | — | 83–88° |
| 9d · 2026-09-28 | 78° | 84° | 78° | 83° | 82° | — | — | 78–84° |
| 8d · 2026-09-29 | 84° | 84° | 81° | 77° | 89° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 7d · 2026-09-30 | 80° | 82° | 78° | 74° | 84° | 82° | — | 74–84° |
| 6d · 2026-10-01 | 80° | 77° | 80° | 78° | 87° | 79° | 85° | 77–87° |
| 5d · 2026-10-02 | 80° | 81° | 82° | 83° | 85° | 80° | 81° | 80–85° |
| 4d · 2026-10-03 | 80° | 83° | 78° | 81° | 84° | 80° | 80° | 78–84° |
| 3d · 2026-10-04 | 80° | 84° | 82° | 78° | 85° | 81° | 80° | 78–85° |
| 2d · 2026-10-05 | 80° | 83° | 80° | 81° | 79° | 80° | 81° | 79–83° |
| 1d · 2026-10-06 | 78° | 78° | 78° | 78° | 76° | 80° | 78° | 76–80° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.