Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sun Sep 27?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Sun Sep 27 high anywhere from 77° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 84° against the ORL observations — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-12 | — | 83° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 83–89° |
| 14d · 2026-09-13 | 88° | 77° | 83° | — | 89° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 13d · 2026-09-14 | 91° | 90° | 86° | — | 89° | — | — | 86–91° |
| 12d · 2026-09-15 | 86° | 88° | 82° | — | 93° | — | — | 82–93° |
| 11d · 2026-09-16 | 85° | 89° | 78° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 10d · 2026-09-17 | 85° | 88° | 87° | — | 88° | — | — | 85–88° |
| 9d · 2026-09-18 | 81° | 88° | 85° | 80° | 94° | — | — | 80–94° |
| 8d · 2026-09-19 | 82° | 84° | 83° | 85° | 92° | — | — | 82–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-20 | 84° | 85° | 84° | 84° | 90° | — | — | 84–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-21 | 82° | 86° | 80° | 84° | 86° | 87° | 83° | 80–87° |
| 5d · 2026-09-22 | 83° | 85° | 81° | 84° | 92° | 89° | 84° | 81–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-23 | 82° | 85° | 82° | 85° | 88° | 85° | 84° | 82–88° |
| 3d · 2026-09-24 | 82° | 83° | 81° | 82° | 91° | 84° | 83° | 81–91° |
| 2d · 2026-09-25 | 82° | 84° | 82° | 82° | 90° | 84° | 84° | 82–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-26 | 82° | 84° | 82° | 86° | 90° | 83° | 84° | 82–90° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.