Was the forecast right for Orlando on Mon Sep 21?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 81° to 94°;by the call made on the day itself the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 89° against the ORL observations — thunderstorms.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.2°. ECMWF ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-06 | — | 89° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 89–94° |
| 14d · 2026-09-07 | 81° | 83° | 90° | — | 94° | — | — | 81–94° |
| 13d · 2026-09-08 | 87° | 92° | 90° | — | 94° | — | — | 87–94° |
| 12d · 2026-09-09 | 81° | 80° | 82° | — | 90° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 11d · 2026-09-10 | 90° | 92° | 86° | — | 90° | — | — | 86–92° |
| 10d · 2026-09-11 | 88° | 89° | 90° | — | 90° | — | — | 88–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-12 | 87° | 90° | 87° | 89° | 96° | — | — | 87–96° |
| 8d · 2026-09-13 | 85° | 91° | 80° | 87° | 96° | — | — | 80–96° |
| 7d · 2026-09-14 | 88° | 90° | 86° | 89° | 92° | — | — | 86–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-15 | 86° | 91° | 87° | 86° | 96° | 91° | 86° | 86–96° |
| 5d · 2026-09-16 | 86° | 91° | 85° | 88° | 94° | 90° | 83° | 83–94° |
| 4d · 2026-09-17 | 86° | 91° | 87° | 89° | 96° | 90° | 88° | 86–96° |
| 3d · 2026-09-18 | 85° | 90° | 86° | 90° | 93° | 87° | 82° | 82–93° |
| 2d · 2026-09-19 | 86° | 90° | 87° | 90° | 97° | 91° | 83° | 83–97° |
| 1d · 2026-09-20 | 85° | 90° | 87° | 86° | 94° | 88° | 87° | 85–94° |
| 0d · 2026-09-21 | 85° | 88° | 84° | 88° | 91° | 86° | 84° | 84–91° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.