Was the forecast right for Orlando on Thu Sep 17?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Thu Sep 17 high anywhere from 83° to 96°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 87° against the ORL observations, with 0.05 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-02 | — | 92° | — | — | 96° | — | — | 92–96° |
| 14d · 2026-09-03 | 84° | 83° | 89° | — | 96° | — | — | 83–96° |
| 13d · 2026-09-04 | 90° | 90° | 88° | — | 94° | — | — | 88–94° |
| 12d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 87° | 85° | — | 96° | — | — | 85–96° |
| 11d · 2026-09-06 | 86° | 87° | 88° | — | 96° | — | — | 86–96° |
| 10d · 2026-09-07 | 87° | 90° | 89° | — | 98° | — | — | 87–98° |
| 9d · 2026-09-08 | 87° | 88° | 88° | 90° | 95° | — | — | 87–95° |
| 8d · 2026-09-09 | 86° | 93° | 89° | 88° | 93° | — | — | 86–93° |
| 7d · 2026-09-10 | 87° | 88° | 78° | 87° | 92° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-11 | 86° | 89° | 83° | 90° | 83° | 92° | 81° | 81–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-12 | 87° | 89° | 84° | 90° | 92° | 91° | 79° | 79–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-13 | 83° | 90° | 83° | 90° | 90° | 90° | 87° | 83–90° |
| 3d · 2026-09-14 | 85° | 86° | 81° | 89° | 90° | 88° | 87° | 81–90° |
| 2d · 2026-09-15 | 87° | 88° | 85° | 89° | 89° | 88° | 81° | 81–89° |
| 1d · 2026-09-16 | 88° | 89° | 86° | 89° | 91° | 90° | 88° | 86–91° |
| 0d · 2026-09-17 | 86° | 87° | 86° | 87° | 91° | 88° | 88° | 86–91° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.