Was the forecast right for Orlando on Mon Sep 14?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 87° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 95° against the ORL observations, with 0.23 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 2.4°. GEM ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-30 | — | 88° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 88–98° |
| 14d · 2026-08-31 | 87° | 93° | 90° | — | 93° | — | — | 87–93° |
| 13d · 2026-09-01 | 92° | 94° | 85° | — | 97° | — | — | 85–97° |
| 12d · 2026-09-02 | 92° | 91° | 88° | — | 92° | — | — | 88–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-03 | 84° | 94° | 88° | — | 99° | — | — | 84–99° |
| 10d · 2026-09-04 | 89° | 92° | 85° | — | 90° | — | — | 85–92° |
| 9d · 2026-09-05 | 89° | 92° | 90° | 89° | 98° | — | — | 89–98° |
| 8d · 2026-09-06 | 87° | 90° | 89° | 91° | 95° | — | — | 87–95° |
| 7d · 2026-09-07 | 89° | 91° | 81° | 90° | 96° | — | — | 81–96° |
| 6d · 2026-09-08 | 90° | 92° | 89° | 89° | 97° | 91° | 88° | 88–97° |
| 5d · 2026-09-09 | 90° | 92° | 89° | 88° | 95° | 93° | 92° | 88–95° |
| 4d · 2026-09-10 | 90° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 98° | 91° | 90° | 89–98° |
| 3d · 2026-09-11 | 90° | 90° | 90° | 94° | 98° | 91° | 91° | 90–98° |
| 2d · 2026-09-12 | 90° | 90° | 90° | 90° | 96° | 90° | 88° | 88–96° |
| 1d · 2026-09-13 | 91° | 90° | 90° | 92° | 98° | 90° | 88° | 88–98° |
| 0d · 2026-09-14 | 91° | 92° | 90° | 89° | 100° | 93° | 91° | 89–100° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.