Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sat Aug 29?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations
10 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 86° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 93° against the ORL observations, with 1.81 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-19 | 86° | 93° | 90° | — | 97° | — | — | 86–97° |
| 9d · 2026-08-20 | 89° | 92° | 93° | — | 99° | — | — | 89–99° |
| 8d · 2026-08-21 | 89° | 93° | 90° | 95° | 99° | — | — | 89–99° |
| 7d · 2026-08-22 | 89° | 94° | 92° | 95° | 97° | 89° | — | 89–97° |
| 6d · 2026-08-23 | 90° | 93° | 90° | 97° | 96° | 93° | 92° | 90–97° |
| 5d · 2026-08-24 | 90° | 93° | 85° | 97° | 96° | 90° | 93° | 85–97° |
| 4d · 2026-08-25 | 90° | 94° | 89° | 94° | 94° | 89° | 88° | 88–94° |
| 3d · 2026-08-26 | 89° | 93° | 85° | 89° | 98° | 91° | 93° | 85–98° |
| 2d · 2026-08-27 | 88° | 94° | 90° | 92° | 98° | 92° | 92° | 88–98° |
| 1d · 2026-08-28 | 89° | 94° | 90° | 92° | 98° | 90° | 93° | 89–98° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.