Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sat Aug 1?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 85° to 93°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 87° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.59 in of precipitation — rain.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.5°. ICON ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-17 | — | 89° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 80–89° |
| 14d · 2026-07-18 | 88° | 87° | — | — | 101° | — | — | 87–101° |
| 13d · 2026-07-19 | 89° | 85° | 87° | — | 93° | — | — | 85–93° |
| 12d · 2026-07-20 | 87° | 85° | 83° | — | 95° | — | — | 83–95° |
| 11d · 2026-07-21 | 83° | 83° | 88° | — | 97° | — | — | 83–97° |
| 10d · 2026-07-22 | 86° | 86° | 79° | — | 99° | — | — | 79–99° |
| 9d · 2026-07-23 | 89° | 85° | 88° | 89° | 81° | — | — | 81–89° |
| 8d · 2026-07-24 | 82° | 85° | 86° | 82° | 96° | — | — | 82–96° |
| 7d · 2026-07-25 | 82° | 84° | 85° | 90° | 80° | 87° | — | 80–90° |
| 6d · 2026-07-26 | 82° | 85° | 83° | 88° | 95° | 91° | 84° | 82–95° |
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 84° | 86° | 82° | 90° | 95° | 85° | 83° | 82–95° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 84° | 84° | 87° | 86° | 96° | 92° | 86° | 84–96° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 84° | 87° | 87° | 90° | 96° | 89° | 91° | 84–96° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 84° | 89° | 82° | 89° | 87° | 88° | 85° | 82–89° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 86° | 93° | 88° | 90° | 93° | 94° | 92° | 86–94° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.