Was the forecast right for Orlando on Fri Jul 31?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 81° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 88° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.12 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.0°. GEM ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-07-17 | 81° | 88° | 89° | — | 89° | — | — | 81–89° |
| 13d · 2026-07-18 | 84° | 89° | 92° | — | 100° | — | — | 84–100° |
| 12d · 2026-07-19 | 91° | 90° | 87° | — | 84° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 11d · 2026-07-20 | 87° | 84° | 88° | — | 94° | — | — | 84–94° |
| 10d · 2026-07-21 | 84° | 83° | 85° | — | 99° | — | — | 83–99° |
| 9d · 2026-07-22 | 93° | 83° | 92° | 90° | 98° | — | — | 83–98° |
| 8d · 2026-07-23 | 88° | 84° | 84° | 89° | 91° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 7d · 2026-07-24 | 85° | 82° | 78° | 92° | 92° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 6d · 2026-07-25 | 84° | 83° | 83° | 94° | 93° | 88° | 85° | 83–94° |
| 5d · 2026-07-26 | 86° | 83° | 88° | 89° | 98° | 90° | 84° | 83–98° |
| 4d · 2026-07-27 | 86° | 89° | 86° | 86° | 94° | 86° | 84° | 84–94° |
| 3d · 2026-07-28 | 86° | 90° | 85° | 82° | 91° | 88° | 93° | 82–93° |
| 2d · 2026-07-29 | 87° | 91° | 89° | 85° | 88° | 90° | 86° | 85–91° |
| 1d · 2026-07-30 | 87° | 90° | 87° | 82° | 85° | 88° | 87° | 82–90° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.