Was the forecast right for Orlando on Tue Jul 28?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
11 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Tue Jul 28 high anywhere from 82° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 90° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Jul 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-07-17 | 88° | 84° | 82° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–88° |
| 10d · 2026-07-18 | 90° | 95° | 86° | — | 97° | — | — | 86–97° |
| 9d · 2026-07-19 | 93° | 87° | 84° | 91° | 94° | — | — | 84–94° |
| 8d · 2026-07-20 | 94° | 85° | 93° | 90° | 84° | — | — | 84–94° |
| 7d · 2026-07-21 | 88° | 91° | 90° | 89° | 95° | — | — | 88–95° |
| 6d · 2026-07-22 | 94° | 91° | 88° | 87° | 98° | 94° | 95° | 87–98° |
| 5d · 2026-07-23 | 92° | 91° | 88° | 84° | 96° | 94° | 92° | 84–96° |
| 4d · 2026-07-24 | 91° | 91° | 90° | 89° | 97° | 95° | 93° | 89–97° |
| 3d · 2026-07-25 | 92° | 92° | 91° | 91° | 100° | 94° | 99° | 91–100° |
| 2d · 2026-07-26 | 89° | 90° | 87° | 96° | 91° | 95° | 97° | 87–97° |
| 1d · 2026-07-27 | 90° | 95° | 91° | 88° | 98° | 95° | 96° | 88–98° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.