Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Oct 26?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Oct 26 high anywhere from 56° to 64°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 75° against the OKC observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.0°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-11 | — | 58° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 58–69° |
| 14d · 2026-10-12 | 59° | 62° | 56° | — | 64° | — | — | 56–64° |
| 13d · 2026-10-13 | 63° | 65° | 78° | — | 69° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 12d · 2026-10-14 | 58° | 62° | 70° | — | 64° | — | — | 58–70° |
| 11d · 2026-10-15 | 62° | 77° | 59° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–77° |
| 10d · 2026-10-16 | 67° | 45° | 70° | — | 79° | — | — | 45–79° |
| 9d · 2026-10-17 | 71° | 77° | 70° | 73° | 66° | — | — | 66–77° |
| 8d · 2026-10-18 | 76° | 73° | 78° | 71° | 73° | — | — | 71–78° |
| 7d · 2026-10-19 | 74° | 76° | 66° | 72° | 72° | 73° | — | 66–76° |
| 6d · 2026-10-20 | 70° | 76° | 72° | 74° | 63° | 63° | 68° | 63–76° |
| 5d · 2026-10-21 | 73° | 75° | 76° | 75° | 71° | 69° | 73° | 69–76° |
| 4d · 2026-10-22 | 74° | 75° | 76° | 76° | 73° | 70° | 75° | 70–76° |
| 3d · 2026-10-23 | 75° | 75° | 75° | 75° | 75° | 74° | 75° | 74–75° |
| 2d · 2026-10-24 | 74° | 75° | 74° | 77° | 74° | 75° | 74° | 74–77° |
| 1d · 2026-10-25 | 75° | 74° | 75° | 76° | 74° | 75° | 74° | 74–76° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.