Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Thu Oct 22?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Thu Oct 22 high anywhere from 63° to 75°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 80° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-07 | — | 64° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 64–70° |
| 14d · 2026-10-08 | 70° | 67° | 63° | — | 75° | — | — | 63–75° |
| 13d · 2026-10-09 | 71° | 71° | 73° | — | 72° | — | — | 71–73° |
| 12d · 2026-10-10 | 75° | 79° | 74° | — | 78° | — | — | 74–79° |
| 11d · 2026-10-11 | 74° | 68° | 76° | — | 68° | — | — | 68–76° |
| 10d · 2026-10-12 | 76° | 71° | 74° | — | 72° | — | — | 71–76° |
| 9d · 2026-10-13 | 76° | 70° | 72° | 68° | 72° | — | — | 68–76° |
| 8d · 2026-10-14 | 78° | 79° | 76° | 74° | 79° | — | — | 74–79° |
| 7d · 2026-10-15 | 81° | 76° | 79° | 74° | 76° | — | — | 74–81° |
| 6d · 2026-10-16 | 79° | 81° | 76° | 76° | 79° | 77° | 75° | 75–81° |
| 5d · 2026-10-17 | 79° | 78° | 76° | 78° | 78° | 77° | 77° | 76–79° |
| 4d · 2026-10-18 | 78° | 78° | 76° | 75° | 78° | 78° | 77° | 75–78° |
| 3d · 2026-10-19 | 78° | 78° | 78° | 77° | 78° | 78° | 76° | 76–78° |
| 2d · 2026-10-20 | 78° | 78° | 76° | 80° | 78° | 79° | 77° | 76–80° |
| 1d · 2026-10-21 | 80° | 78° | 78° | 80° | 77° | 79° | 78° | 77–80° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.