Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Oct 18?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 67° to 73°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 64°. The day verified at 68° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 3.0°. ECMWF ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 80° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 80–86° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 67° | 73° | 69° | — | 68° | — | — | 67–73° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 68° | 60° | 55° | — | 65° | — | — | 55–68° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 78° | 73° | 70° | — | 76° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 77° | 69° | 67° | — | 71° | — | — | 67–77° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 58° | 43° | 64° | — | 56° | — | — | 43–64° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 63° | 70° | 74° | 65° | 64° | — | — | 63–74° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 64° | 65° | 71° | 64° | 57° | — | — | 57–71° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 66° | 66° | 68° | 70° | 64° | 67° | — | 64–70° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | 64° | 68° | 64° | 67° | 65° | 67° | 65° | 64–68° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 63° | 66° | 62° | 62° | 65° | 60° | 65° | 60–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 64° | 65° | 62° | 61° | 65° | 62° | 62° | 61–65° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 65° | 66° | 62° | 61° | 64° | 62° | 63° | 61–66° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 65° | 65° | 62° | 62° | 65° | 62° | 64° | 62–65° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 65° | 64° | 62° | 63° | 64° | 64° | 64° | 62–65° |
| actual | 68° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.