Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Oct 16?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 64° to 72°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 58°. The day verified at 59° against the OKC observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 80° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 76–80° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 64° | 64° | 70° | — | 72° | — | — | 64–72° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 77° | 76° | 67° | — | 71° | — | — | 67–77° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 75° | 64° | 69° | — | 84° | — | — | 64–84° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 70° | 71° | 77° | — | 76° | — | — | 70–77° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 62° | 60° | 56° | — | 70° | — | — | 56–70° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 86° | 80° | 66° | 58° | 73° | — | — | 58–86° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 64° | 66° | 66° | 65° | 70° | — | — | 64–70° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 65° | 67° | 71° | 63° | 70° | — | — | 63–71° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 58° | 61° | 69° | 60° | 65° | 68° | 68° | 58–69° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 58° | 61° | 63° | 61° | 61° | 64° | 69° | 58–69° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | 58° | 59° | 60° | 56° | 61° | 58° | 66° | 56–66° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 58° | 60° | 62° | 55° | 60° | 57° | 62° | 55–62° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 58° | 58° | 62° | 55° | 58° | 58° | 62° | 55–62° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 58° | 58° | 59° | 55° | 58° | 57° | 60° | 55–60° |
| actual | 59° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.