Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Wed Oct 14?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Wed Oct 14 high anywhere from 64° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 77° against the OKC observations, with 5.59 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. GEM ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-29 | — | 78° | — | — | 87° | — | — | 78–87° |
| 14d · 2026-09-30 | 64° | 87° | 86° | — | 88° | — | — | 64–88° |
| 13d · 2026-10-01 | 63° | 80° | 94° | — | 74° | — | — | 63–94° |
| 12d · 2026-10-02 | 54° | 45° | 91° | — | 89° | — | — | 45–91° |
| 11d · 2026-10-03 | 72° | 71° | 84° | — | 92° | — | — | 71–92° |
| 10d · 2026-10-04 | 74° | 48° | 86° | — | 63° | — | — | 48–86° |
| 9d · 2026-10-05 | 76° | 74° | 87° | 88° | 83° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 8d · 2026-10-06 | 72° | 93° | 63° | 72° | 87° | — | — | 63–93° |
| 7d · 2026-10-07 | 64° | 90° | 78° | 74° | 90° | 74° | — | 64–90° |
| 6d · 2026-10-08 | 73° | 88° | 81° | 87° | 90° | 90° | 89° | 73–90° |
| 5d · 2026-10-09 | 79° | 89° | 87° | 90° | 89° | 81° | 86° | 79–90° |
| 4d · 2026-10-10 | 78° | 81° | 79° | 85° | 76° | 80° | 85° | 76–85° |
| 3d · 2026-10-11 | 78° | 84° | 87° | 85° | 78° | 79° | 86° | 78–87° |
| 2d · 2026-10-12 | 78° | 79° | 82° | 84° | 82° | 80° | 80° | 78–84° |
| 1d · 2026-10-13 | 78° | 78° | 83° | 84° | 83° | 80° | 80° | 78–84° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.