Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Tue Sep 29?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Tue Sep 29 high anywhere from 84° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 90° against the OKC observations — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-14 | — | 96° | — | — | 102° | — | — | 96–102° |
| 14d · 2026-09-15 | 87° | 94° | 86° | — | 84° | — | — | 84–94° |
| 13d · 2026-09-16 | 78° | 87° | 83° | — | 95° | — | — | 78–95° |
| 12d · 2026-09-17 | 76° | 80° | 70° | — | 94° | — | — | 70–94° |
| 11d · 2026-09-18 | 85° | 81° | 81° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–85° |
| 10d · 2026-09-19 | 75° | 74° | 72° | — | 83° | — | — | 72–83° |
| 9d · 2026-09-20 | 76° | 80° | 76° | 81° | 92° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-21 | 83° | 85° | 82° | 70° | 83° | — | — | 70–85° |
| 7d · 2026-09-22 | 75° | 84° | 90° | 90° | 80° | 86° | — | 75–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-23 | 93° | 89° | 83° | 78° | 82° | 89° | 84° | 78–93° |
| 5d · 2026-09-24 | 90° | 88° | 86° | 84° | 89° | 93° | 84° | 84–93° |
| 4d · 2026-09-25 | 84° | 88° | 87° | 85° | 80° | 89° | 85° | 80–89° |
| 3d · 2026-09-26 | 89° | 88° | 89° | 86° | 89° | 78° | 88° | 78–89° |
| 2d · 2026-09-27 | 89° | 87° | 88° | 90° | 90° | 91° | 86° | 86–91° |
| 1d · 2026-09-28 | 89° | 87° | 90° | 88° | 90° | 91° | 86° | 86–91° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.