Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Sep 20?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 74° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 94° against the OKC observations — showers.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-05 | — | 65° | — | — | 97° | — | — | 65–97° |
| 14d · 2026-09-06 | 82° | 84° | 74° | — | 76° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-07 | 77° | 85° | 91° | — | 91° | — | — | 77–91° |
| 12d · 2026-09-08 | 76° | 70° | 82° | — | 98° | — | — | 70–98° |
| 11d · 2026-09-09 | 94° | 78° | 87° | — | 90° | — | — | 78–94° |
| 10d · 2026-09-10 | 76° | 82° | 76° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–82° |
| 9d · 2026-09-11 | 82° | 72° | 98° | 92° | 86° | — | — | 72–98° |
| 8d · 2026-09-12 | 92° | 80° | 74° | 85° | 85° | — | — | 74–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-13 | 95° | 86° | 97° | 97° | 83° | — | — | 83–97° |
| 6d · 2026-09-14 | 80° | 82° | 82° | 79° | 91° | 96° | 100° | 79–100° |
| 5d · 2026-09-15 | 90° | 85° | 100° | 92° | 97° | 102° | 84° | 84–102° |
| 4d · 2026-09-16 | 92° | 86° | 95° | 98° | 100° | 85° | 97° | 85–100° |
| 3d · 2026-09-17 | 86° | 87° | 89° | 95° | 99° | 84° | 94° | 84–99° |
| 2d · 2026-09-18 | 86° | 88° | 88° | 88° | 99° | 85° | 89° | 85–99° |
| 1d · 2026-09-19 | 86° | 88° | 88° | 93° | 99° | 85° | 91° | 85–99° |
| 0d · 2026-09-20 | 90° | 90° | 94° | 92° | 95° | 92° | 94° | 90–95° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.