Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Tue Sep 8?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 76° to 102°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 101°. The day verified at 103° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.4°. ECMWF ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-24 | — | 80° | — | — | 106° | — | — | 80–106° |
| 14d · 2026-08-25 | 85° | 85° | 76° | — | 102° | — | — | 76–102° |
| 13d · 2026-08-26 | 94° | 81° | 102° | — | 100° | — | — | 81–102° |
| 12d · 2026-08-27 | 100° | 87° | 102° | — | 107° | — | — | 87–107° |
| 11d · 2026-08-28 | 95° | 95° | 101° | — | 107° | — | — | 95–107° |
| 10d · 2026-08-29 | 100° | 86° | 102° | — | 102° | — | — | 86–102° |
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 98° | 92° | 103° | 96° | 112° | — | — | 92–112° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 99° | 98° | 101° | 97° | 107° | — | — | 97–107° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 100° | 100° | 97° | 99° | 109° | 99° | — | 97–109° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 100° | 98° | 99° | 102° | 105° | 96° | 90° | 90–105° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 100° | 98° | 101° | 101° | 106° | 98° | 99° | 98–106° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 100° | 99° | 102° | 99° | 105° | 101° | 102° | 99–105° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 101° | 100° | 101° | 99° | 105° | 102° | 100° | 99–105° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 101° | 99° | 100° | 100° | 104° | 102° | 101° | 99–104° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 102° | 101° | 100° | 101° | 105° | 101° | 101° | 100–105° |
| actual | 103° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.