Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Thu Sep 3?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 98° to 106°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 96°. The day verified at 95° against the OKC observations — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-19 | — | 99° | — | — | 108° | — | — | 99–108° |
| 14d · 2026-08-20 | 101° | 104° | 98° | — | 106° | — | — | 98–106° |
| 13d · 2026-08-21 | 98° | 93° | 102° | — | 107° | — | — | 93–107° |
| 12d · 2026-08-22 | 100° | 89° | 88° | — | 105° | — | — | 88–105° |
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 100° | 103° | 107° | — | 112° | — | — | 100–112° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 103° | 100° | 96° | — | 91° | — | — | 91–103° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 103° | 104° | 101° | 102° | 103° | — | — | 101–104° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 104° | 101° | 101° | 100° | 107° | — | — | 100–107° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 104° | 103° | 102° | 103° | 106° | 100° | — | 100–106° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 103° | 97° | 101° | 100° | 105° | 101° | 99° | 97–105° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 102° | 96° | 100° | 100° | 105° | 100° | 101° | 96–105° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 98° | 97° | 97° | 100° | 104° | 98° | 103° | 97–104° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 95° | 94° | 97° | 97° | 104° | 98° | 98° | 94–104° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 95° | 97° | 94° | 96° | 101° | 96° | 97° | 94–101° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 95° | 96° | 94° | 96° | 99° | 96° | 98° | 94–99° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.