Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Aug 31?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
12 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 91° to 114°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 100°. The day verified at 101° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-08-19 | 98° | 103° | 91° | — | 114° | — | — | 91–114° |
| 11d · 2026-08-20 | 97° | 102° | 103° | — | 107° | — | — | 97–107° |
| 10d · 2026-08-21 | 99° | 102° | 102° | — | 107° | — | — | 99–107° |
| 9d · 2026-08-22 | 99° | 100° | 99° | 102° | 103° | — | — | 99–103° |
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 99° | 101° | 102° | 101° | 109° | — | — | 99–109° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 100° | 101° | 100° | 100° | 105° | 100° | — | 100–105° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 100° | 101° | 100° | 100° | 107° | 101° | 99° | 99–107° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 100° | 99° | 102° | 98° | 105° | 100° | 102° | 98–105° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 101° | 100° | 102° | 99° | 107° | 100° | 104° | 99–107° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 101° | 100° | 102° | 99° | 106° | 100° | 100° | 99–106° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 100° | 100° | 101° | 100° | 106° | 100° | 99° | 99–106° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 100° | 101° | 100° | 100° | 105° | 100° | 100° | 100–105° |
| actual | 101° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.