Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Aug 29?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
10 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 90° to 114°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 101°. The day verified at 103° against the OKC observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 1.3°. GFS ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-19 | 94° | 110° | 90° | — | 114° | — | — | 90–114° |
| 9d · 2026-08-20 | 94° | 102° | 100° | — | 110° | — | — | 94–110° |
| 8d · 2026-08-21 | 97° | 95° | 102° | 104° | 110° | — | — | 95–110° |
| 7d · 2026-08-22 | 98° | 95° | 101° | 94° | 105° | 96° | — | 94–105° |
| 6d · 2026-08-23 | 98° | 100° | 99° | 99° | 110° | 99° | 96° | 96–110° |
| 5d · 2026-08-24 | 100° | 97° | 98° | 99° | 109° | 97° | 100° | 97–109° |
| 4d · 2026-08-25 | 100° | 97° | 98° | 100° | 106° | 98° | 101° | 97–106° |
| 3d · 2026-08-26 | 99° | 99° | 98° | 97° | 106° | 99° | 101° | 97–106° |
| 2d · 2026-08-27 | 100° | 100° | 100° | 98° | 107° | 100° | 104° | 98–107° |
| 1d · 2026-08-28 | 101° | 101° | 100° | 100° | 106° | 101° | 102° | 100–106° |
| actual | 103° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.