Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Thu Aug 27?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
8 days out, 5 models put Oklahoma City's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 88° to 110°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 94°. The day verified at 95° against the OKC observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-19 | 88° | 100° | 92° | 100° | 110° | — | — | 88–110° |
| 7d · 2026-08-20 | 92° | 97° | 95° | 86° | 104° | 100° | — | 86–104° |
| 6d · 2026-08-21 | 94° | 95° | 98° | 101° | 103° | 90° | 97° | 90–103° |
| 5d · 2026-08-22 | 94° | 93° | 99° | 91° | 99° | 91° | 96° | 91–99° |
| 4d · 2026-08-23 | 94° | 94° | 95° | 95° | 103° | 94° | 90° | 90–103° |
| 3d · 2026-08-24 | 93° | 93° | 92° | 92° | 102° | 92° | 93° | 92–102° |
| 2d · 2026-08-25 | 95° | 94° | 94° | 91° | 100° | 94° | 98° | 91–100° |
| 1d · 2026-08-26 | 89° | 93° | 93° | 94° | 100° | 94° | 95° | 89–100° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.