Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Aug 14?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Aug 14 high anywhere from 87° to 108°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 103°. The day verified at 103° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-30 | — | 101° | — | — | 108° | — | — | 101–108° |
| 14d · 2026-07-31 | 97° | 87° | 107° | — | 108° | — | — | 87–108° |
| 13d · 2026-08-01 | 104° | 84° | 104° | — | 110° | — | — | 84–110° |
| 12d · 2026-08-02 | 95° | 87° | 104° | — | 107° | — | — | 87–107° |
| 11d · 2026-08-03 | 95° | 98° | 104° | — | 106° | — | — | 95–106° |
| 10d · 2026-08-04 | 94° | 101° | 102° | — | 108° | — | — | 94–108° |
| 9d · 2026-08-05 | 100° | 102° | 102° | 103° | 108° | — | — | 100–108° |
| 8d · 2026-08-06 | 99° | 102° | 90° | 79° | 91° | — | — | 79–102° |
| 7d · 2026-08-07 | 101° | 101° | 100° | 102° | 108° | 105° | — | 100–108° |
| 6d · 2026-08-08 | 98° | 102° | 101° | 98° | 109° | 108° | 98° | 98–109° |
| 5d · 2026-08-09 | 99° | 102° | 104° | 103° | 108° | 104° | 100° | 99–108° |
| 4d · 2026-08-10 | 101° | 102° | 103° | 103° | 108° | 104° | 102° | 101–108° |
| 3d · 2026-08-11 | 102° | 102° | 104° | 102° | 108° | 105° | 99° | 99–108° |
| 2d · 2026-08-12 | 102° | 102° | 103° | 102° | 103° | 105° | 104° | 102–105° |
| 1d · 2026-08-13 | 102° | 103° | 104° | 102° | 103° | 105° | 105° | 102–105° |
| actual | 103° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.