Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Aug 7?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Aug 7 high anywhere from 84° to 109°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 102°. The day verified at 96° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.12 in of precipitation — rain.
AIFS landed closest, off by 3.2°. ICON ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-23 | — | 82° | — | — | 100° | — | — | 82–100° |
| 14d · 2026-07-24 | 96° | 94° | 84° | — | 109° | — | — | 84–109° |
| 13d · 2026-07-25 | 93° | 92° | 102° | — | 104° | — | — | 92–104° |
| 12d · 2026-07-26 | 90° | 94° | 103° | — | 89° | — | — | 89–103° |
| 11d · 2026-07-27 | 94° | 95° | 100° | — | 96° | — | — | 94–100° |
| 10d · 2026-07-28 | 98° | 83° | 107° | — | 109° | — | — | 83–109° |
| 9d · 2026-07-29 | 92° | 87° | 104° | 100° | 102° | — | — | 87–104° |
| 8d · 2026-07-30 | 88° | 97° | 104° | 101° | 106° | — | — | 88–106° |
| 7d · 2026-07-31 | 90° | 93° | 104° | 99° | 103° | 103° | — | 90–104° |
| 6d · 2026-08-01 | 90° | 92° | 101° | 100° | 103° | 100° | 99° | 90–103° |
| 5d · 2026-08-02 | 87° | 91° | 94° | 97° | 105° | 104° | 96° | 87–105° |
| 4d · 2026-08-03 | 96° | 95° | 103° | 97° | 108° | 102° | 100° | 95–108° |
| 3d · 2026-08-04 | 95° | 97° | 105° | 102° | 106° | 104° | 106° | 95–106° |
| 2d · 2026-08-05 | 93° | 96° | 105° | 101° | 97° | 105° | 103° | 93–105° |
| 1d · 2026-08-06 | 93° | 100° | 100° | 102° | 102° | 103° | 103° | 93–103° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.