Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Thu Aug 6?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Thu Aug 6 high anywhere from 84° to 101°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 102°. The day verified at 99° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.02 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.6°. UKMO ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-22 | — | 84° | — | — | 105° | — | — | 84–105° |
| 14d · 2026-07-23 | 100° | 84° | 93° | — | 101° | — | — | 84–101° |
| 13d · 2026-07-24 | 86° | 94° | 87° | — | 111° | — | — | 86–111° |
| 12d · 2026-07-25 | 90° | 91° | 101° | — | 106° | — | — | 90–106° |
| 11d · 2026-07-26 | 89° | 95° | 103° | — | 100° | — | — | 89–103° |
| 10d · 2026-07-27 | 94° | 94° | 104° | — | 99° | — | — | 94–104° |
| 9d · 2026-07-28 | 98° | 87° | 104° | 98° | 99° | — | — | 87–104° |
| 8d · 2026-07-29 | 98° | 98° | 106° | 101° | 106° | — | — | 98–106° |
| 7d · 2026-07-30 | 97° | 98° | 104° | 101° | 99° | 86° | — | 86–104° |
| 6d · 2026-07-31 | 98° | 100° | 105° | 102° | 108° | 102° | 100° | 98–108° |
| 5d · 2026-08-01 | 88° | 100° | 106° | 102° | 107° | 99° | 101° | 88–107° |
| 4d · 2026-08-02 | 96° | 101° | 104° | 102° | 107° | 99° | 97° | 96–107° |
| 3d · 2026-08-03 | 98° | 103° | 103° | 97° | 109° | 104° | 98° | 97–109° |
| 2d · 2026-08-04 | 97° | 103° | 101° | 102° | 104° | 102° | 102° | 97–104° |
| 1d · 2026-08-05 | 97° | 103° | 101° | 101° | 102° | 102° | 103° | 97–103° |
| actual | 99° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.