Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Jul 25?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
8 days out, 5 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Jul 25 high anywhere from 97° to 113°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 100°. The day verified at 100° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Jul 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-07-17 | 97° | 98° | 106° | 102° | 113° | — | — | 97–113° |
| 7d · 2026-07-18 | 100° | 97° | 105° | 108° | 110° | 106° | — | 97–110° |
| 6d · 2026-07-19 | 97° | 84° | 106° | 94° | 98° | 100° | 98° | 84–106° |
| 5d · 2026-07-20 | 100° | 98° | 103° | 96° | 110° | 104° | 104° | 96–110° |
| 4d · 2026-07-21 | 100° | 97° | 102° | 98° | 109° | 101° | 99° | 97–109° |
| 3d · 2026-07-22 | 100° | 96° | 99° | 94° | 106° | 96° | 101° | 94–106° |
| 2d · 2026-07-23 | 100° | 96° | 101° | 100° | 102° | 100° | 102° | 96–102° |
| 1d · 2026-07-24 | 99° | 96° | 100° | 100° | 102° | 97° | 103° | 96–103° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.