Was the forecast right for New York on Sun Oct 11?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 54° to 60°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 61°. The day verified at 60° against the NYC observations, with 1.84 in of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 64° | — | — | 58° | — | — | 58–64° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 60° | 54° | 57° | — | 59° | — | — | 54–60° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 74° | 73° | 61° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–74° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 78° | 64° | 70° | — | 62° | — | — | 62–78° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 77° | 64° | 70° | — | 70° | — | — | 64–77° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 73° | 70° | 70° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–73° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 70° | 74° | 74° | 78° | 70° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 72° | 62° | 67° | 72° | 66° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 71° | 63° | 68° | 74° | 65° | — | — | 63–74° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 69° | 67° | 72° | 68° | 65° | 69° | 69° | 65–72° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 65° | 70° | 70° | 69° | 73° | 68° | 66° | 65–73° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 64° | 61° | 68° | 71° | 66° | 65° | 66° | 61–71° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 62° | 58° | 62° | 66° | 63° | 63° | 62° | 58–66° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 63° | 61° | 63° | 64° | 64° | 62° | 62° | 61–64° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 61° | 61° | 63° | 61° | 62° | 60° | 61° | 60–63° |
| actual | 60° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.