Was the forecast right for New York on Fri Oct 2?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Fri Oct 2 high anywhere from 67° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 83° against the NYC observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.8°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-17 | — | 63° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 63–69° |
| 14d · 2026-09-18 | 72° | 75° | 67° | — | 77° | — | — | 67–77° |
| 13d · 2026-09-19 | 68° | 60° | 73° | — | 67° | — | — | 60–73° |
| 12d · 2026-09-20 | 70° | 72° | 73° | — | 77° | — | — | 70–77° |
| 11d · 2026-09-21 | 76° | 75° | 72° | — | 73° | — | — | 72–76° |
| 10d · 2026-09-22 | 74° | 67° | 78° | — | 77° | — | — | 67–78° |
| 9d · 2026-09-23 | 79° | 73° | 76° | 79° | 75° | — | — | 73–79° |
| 8d · 2026-09-24 | 84° | 75° | 76° | 77° | 78° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-25 | 71° | 81° | 77° | 77° | 84° | — | — | 71–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-26 | 74° | 84° | 73° | 81° | 76° | 73° | 77° | 73–84° |
| 5d · 2026-09-27 | 86° | 83° | 72° | 80° | 89° | 80° | 75° | 72–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-28 | 85° | 85° | 82° | 82° | 89° | 81° | 84° | 81–89° |
| 3d · 2026-09-29 | 84° | 84° | 82° | 81° | 87° | 83° | 79° | 79–87° |
| 2d · 2026-09-30 | 84° | 84° | 82° | 82° | 87° | 82° | 83° | 82–87° |
| 1d · 2026-10-01 | 84° | 84° | 82° | 87° | 86° | 85° | 84° | 82–87° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.